Bitcoin’s price action is often analysed through various technical indicators and historical patterns to forecast potential movements. The recent breakthrough above the significant resistance level of 30/31k after a prolonged 7-month struggle signifies a crucial development in Bitcoin’s market behaviour. Traders are now eyeing two primary bullish targets.

There seem to be currently two significant targets. The first target aligns with the measured move from the inverse head and shoulders pattern, coinciding with the Fibonacci 0.618, indicating a potential range of 38/40k. This level holds significance as it combines multiple technical indicators, amplifying its importance to traders.

The second target stems from a substantial falling wedge pattern observed on the weekly timeframe, also in confluence with the Fibonacci 0.786, projecting a range of 48/50k. Notably, historical trends show Bitcoin consistently reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci level before previous halving events, indicating a possible trajectory towards this zone.

However, it’s crucial to note the historical aftermath of Bitcoin reaching the 0.786 level. Past occurrences saw significant sell-offs: approximately 40.25% in 2016 and 49% in 2019 (excluding the COVID-induced anomaly). This cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s behaviour implies a potential scenario where hitting the 50k mark before the halving might trigger a substantial downturn of around 30/40%.

This cyclical behaviour underscores the repetitive nature of market trends in Bitcoin’s history, albeit not an exact replication. The anticipated movement towards 50k prior to the halving, followed by a subsequent sell-off, aligns with this cyclicality. Importantly, the identified support level at 31k, approximately 37% lower than the projected 50k mark, may serve as a critical level of defence if a downturn materializes.

Understanding these trends doesn’t guarantee an identical outcome, but it provides a framework for evaluating potential scenarios. Market sentiment, investor behaviour, and unforeseen external factors can influence Bitcoin’s trajectory, potentially deviating from historical patterns. However, these targets can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In essence, the analysis suggests a probable bullish movement towards 38/40k and potentially 48/50k, considering historical patterns and technical indicators. However, it also warns of the likelihood of a subsequent significant correction, aligning with past trends.

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